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Many people like to cite crime statistics from a variety of places, however the best source is from the FBI report: Crime in the United States or the Uniform Crime Report or the UCR, just to avoid confusion. The UCR is not the most complete set of statistics, however, there is no politics, agendas or lobbies pushing any narrative. That’s why the numbers for the UCR are widely cited.

The FBI released the latest preliminary crime statistics the other day with very little media attention. Now, I know why. The numbers don’t look good and the trend looks like it’s going up. Many feared and predicted that this would happen. Murder was up 6.2% and total violence was up 1.7% in United States in 2015 from January 1- June 30. I don’t expect the second half year’s statistics to be any better – more of the same. The West experienced the largest overall spike of +5.6% in violent crime. However, the largest outlier was for Rape statistics, defined by the legacy definition – they were up 9.6%.

The increase in murders broke a three year downward trend. One year however, does not make a crime wave. At the moment, the numbers do pose a problem for those denying that a “Ferguson Effect” isn’t to blame. The Ferguson Effect states that the scrutiny of police tactics across the United States after the killing of Michael Brown by Officer Darren Wilson, has caused police officers to regress to the reactive approach to crime. Relative policing is the traditional form where officers wait to get a call, respond, take a report and move to the next job.

The head of the FBI, James Comey, has been warning everyone about the spike in violence in the United States. However, it was mostly dismissed in the media and the White House. Now, we know why he was beating the drum.

If the Ferguson Effect is real, no matter what anti-violence plan, strategies or training the Department of Justice wants to roll out, it won’t work if the cops think no one has their “6”.

Read the report here: The FBI Report